Peak Oil Warfare: Identifying the Risks

In speaking of Peak Oil, may people frequently highlight the need for security and self-defense against random aggressors. While it is clear that the security environment in a post-Peak Oil world will be far more volatile, few have given a thorough look at the nature of the threats we will face. Will it be bands of crazed suburbanites, oppressive government regimes, or legions of foreign troops that pose the greatest threat? This writing is intended to provide a thorough and objective look at the future of personal and community defense so as to guide us on the most effective ways to prepare strategies.

First, some assumptions for this discussion. Here we are focused on the security environment following a societal collapse characterized by energy scarcity. This should be held distinct from a purely financial phenomenon where oil is still widely available. (Side note: While on the surface it may appear we are currently in the midst of the latter scenario, I would argue strongly that energy scarcity is both a core cause and future result of the systematic financial collapse. That is, however, an argument for a future analysis.)

A second assumption is that the reader lives outside of densely populated urban areas. Under no reasonable scenario will an urban area have adequate resource security in the face of Peak Oil, so to speak of military defense of such an area is moot. This general analysis should be applicable, however, to persons living in small towns, some suburban areas, or rural areas.

1. Oppressive Regimes

The single greatest security threat in many survivalists’ minds is the spectre of the government smashing down your front door and raiding your stockpiles. Recent government leadership and actions have certainly provided some legitimacy to these fears. The deployment of active duty brigades on American soil and executive orders enacting martial law during any given crisis certainly don’t bode well for the future of freedom in this country.

If government forces do choose to exert their will on the populace, there is no feasible military response for a local community. Local para-military and militia forces cannot compete with a fully trained and equipped army to achieve meaningful military victory. Period. To focus your community defense efforts solely to counter the threat of government attack is a waste of resources and may in fact result in attracting enough attention to make it a self-fulfilling prophecy.

If your greatest fear is government attack, your preparations should focus on ways to make your community as minimal an interest as possible in order to avoid government takeover or attack.

If in fact the government did declare martial law, consider this: there are 300 million people in the United States supported by a standing plus reserve military of 3 million. Consider also that in contrast to the residents of countries with which the U.S. has previously been in conflict, 40% of all U.S. households own at least one firearm. Consider also that the U.S. government is a hair’s breadth away from insolvency, and funding a sustained conflict against even a portion of its tax base would be national suicide.

To sum up these points, martial law outside of urban centers is not feasible in the United States and any military action outside of cities would be so minimal that any single community would have an extremely low probability of attack.

2. Foreign Invaders

Although the United States is currently bogged down in non-traditional modes of warfare, many within and without the U.S. military predict that the U.S. will soon face the threat of another peer competitor along the lines of the U.S.S.R. Such a peer competitor would likely not be a single country, but a global alliance centered on a major power like Russia, China, or both. Some in the Peak Oil community fear that such a strong energy-secure player could easily overrun a now-weakened U.S. and play havoc with its people.

Admittedly, a new anti-U.S. alliance is a real and credible threat in the very near future. However, to leap from the current situation, with the U.S. hegemony spread to all corners of the world, to a time when Chinese troops march down Main Street, U.S.A. is a monumental shift in realities.

Even though the U.S. is significantly weakened politically, economically, and diplomatically, the country still holds significant physical and figurative ground world-wide. The approaching depression alone will not completely unravel this power; it will take sustained pressure in a world of declining energy availability to erode U.S. globalization. A third world war would likely only result in the U.S. losing its overseas footholds and retreating back within its borders – and that would be after several years of conflict.

Adversaries of the United States (and the West) will likely continue to use asymmetric means to weaken the U.S., by further undermining our economic, energy, cyber, and political interests long before the advent of open warfare. Our adversaries understand that it is foolish (and will remain so for at least several years) to attempt to compete with the U.S. in the one domain we have trained and prepared for exceptionally well -- large-scale open combat.

This is not to imply that we shouldn’t be concerned about the very real possibility of major war, just that it is not a near-term (i.e. within the next one or two decades) security problem at the local community level. Even if, decades hence, we face the prospect of foreign powers on U.S. soil, all the difficulties outlined in scenario 1 apply to a foreign occupier -- only much more magnified given their foreign status.

3. Mutant Zombie Bikers

Many in Peak Oil circles (and other survivalist groups) speak frequently of “Mutant Zombie Bikers” (MZBs), or some facsimile thereof, which are composed of highly mobile independent groups of heavily-armed bandits scouring the countryside for riches or destruction. In this “Mad Max” scenario, individuals or even isolated communities do stand a reasonable chance of mounting adequate defenses against MZBs. But are scores of roving MZB groups attacking peaceful communities a likely scenario following societal collapse?

To state the obvious, with the advent of Peak Oil, oil will become a very valuable commodity. As recently witnessed during the gas shortage in the U.S. Southeast, gasoline supplies dwindle to near zero within a matter days. In such a scenario it is unlikely that any sizeable group have the ability or the foresight to meet their logistical requirements over any significant length of time. While some isolated cases of MZBs may exist (e.g. gangs commandeering tanker trucks or well-fueled military units going rogue), MZBs are unlikely to pose a significant threat to the average community. While it may be prudent to consider the possibility of an MZB encounter (which we will discuss shortly), it could prove a disastrous (or even fatal) waste of resources to focus on MZBs as the primary security threat while ignoring the key risk to post-Peak Oil communities.

4. Internal Threats

So if biker gangs, martial law, and foreign occupiers aren’t our greatest security threats, what is our greatest risk? In short, crime.

This is not a trivial threat. Consider the number of neighbors or relatives you know who have made preparations or even listened to concerns about Peak Oil and the host of other crises on the horizon. Chances are they can be counted on one hand, at best. This presents a huge security risk literally in our own backyards as our hungry friends and neighbors grow desperate in their needs for food, warmth, and water. Crime will present itself more and more frequently as time goes by and is by orders of magnitude the security risk about which we should be most concerned.

The catch, however, is that we need friends and neighbors in order to assure our long-term survival. Despite many survivalist claims to the contrary, it is a much greater risk for an individual or family to attempt to survive the wilderness alone than the threat of attack by those closest to you.

The strategy for security preparations against local crime is by no means a purely military one. Remember the adage “war is continuation of politics by other means”. The wisest strategy for security is one that focuses on developing a strong political situation which dictates the smallest possible military backup. Strategies for ensuring physical security must focus on ensuring food, energy, and water security for the local community, which gives the residents something to defend rather that erode.

Even the best prepared among us will be forced to make tough choices in the time ahead, such as who to help and who to guard against. However, we must err toward assisting the needy, even if we keep a wary eye on what we have painstakingly prepared for ensuring our own survival. We cannot hope to keep what we have prepared if we are not prepared to keep our community.

Specific strategies for security will be explored in the next installation of this series, which will clearly delineate the key provisions for comprehensive community security in a post-Peak Oil environment. This will include not only preparing for the primary security concern, internal threats, but ways to guard against the other three possible concerns (MZBs, martial law, foreign occupiers) using the appropriate prioritization of time and resources.