Suppose a scientist announces a newly discovered, cheap material that is capable of harnessing 95% of solar energy. Have we found the solution to Peak Oil? Not so fast!
New ideas do not equal immediate solutions, as every scientific principle must be progress through many levels of technological development before approaching anything resembling a usable item. NASA knows this fact well, having brought countless technologies from barely understood science to routine public use. The NASA system for evaluating technologies at all stages of their development is known as Technology Readiness Levels (TRLs).
In NASA’s process, there are 9 TRLs that every technology passes through over the course of its development to become a proven system:
| TRL | Definition |
|---|---|
| 1 | Basic principles observed and reported |
| 2 | Technology concept and/or application formulation |
| 3 | Analytical and experimental critical function and/or characteristic proof-of-concept |
| 4 | Component and/or breadboard validation in laboratory environment |
| 5 | Component and/or breadboard validation in relevant environment |
| 6 | System/subsystem model or prototype demonstration in a relevant environment |
| 7 | System prototype demonstration in operating environment |
| 8 | Actual system completed and “flight qualified” through test and demonstration |
| 9 | Actual system “flight proven” through successful mission operations |
Nuclear fusion technology is around TRL 1 (possibly TRL 2) and has been for decades. Considering that it can take a new technology years between each TRL, and the fact that we still haven’t pegged down the basic operational characteristics of a fusion reactor, it will be decades more before we ever see a “flight proven” system.
Any solutions we find to help solve our energy needs must be based on proven technology. There are very few technologies that can be brought online quickly enough to have a meaningful impact on an imminent Peak Oil problem – and then there are the non-trivial matters of infrastructure and distribution.
That said, we must invest massive amounts of investment into energy research in an attempt to bring as many viable technologies to fruition as possible. There is no set amount of time between the different Technology Readiness Levels, and with sufficient genius a dark horse scientific concept can be made functional in one or two years.
The point here is that technology needs lead time. If we focus our attention on every new idea with a very low TRL, we will all run out of time to accomplish anything. We must make do with the technology we have available – even if it’s not as glamorous as we might hope.
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...6 and ½ billion humans? Some people can plan for the post-oil future and others can work on advancing new energy technologies. The point of this post is well taken and those planning for a post-oil world now should only incorporate the proven technologies. But the great thing about systems engineering is that it allows for reworks, so new technologies introduced prior to post-oil can be implemented as soon as they've proven to be successful.